Risk Factors in Underwriting
Last Updated: 2025-12-26 Status: Complete
Quick Reference
Purpose: Identify and quantify merchant risk to determine approval decisions and appropriate terms.
Key Insight: Risk is additive - multiple medium-risk factors can create a high-risk profile.
Critical Fact: Individual risk factors matter less than their combination and context.
Decision Impact: Risk factors determine:
- Approval vs. decline
- Reserve requirements (0-50%)
- Volume limits
- Pricing tier
- Monitoring intensity
PayFac Context: Portfolio-level risk aggregation requires managing concentration across all sub-merchants.
Overview
Risk factors are measurable characteristics of a merchant's business, processing history, ownership, and operations that indicate the likelihood of:
- Fraud: Stolen card usage, identity theft, fake businesses
- Chargebacks: Customer disputes exceeding acceptable thresholds
- Regulatory Violations: AML, sanctions, licensing non-compliance
- Merchant Failure: Business collapse leading to unfulfilled obligations
- Reputational Damage: Association with controversial or illegal activities
Effective underwriting evaluates multiple dimensions of risk simultaneously. A merchant may be low-risk in one dimension (established business) but high-risk in another (delivery timeframe), requiring nuanced evaluation.
The same business characteristic can be low-risk in one context and high-risk in another. For example:
- $50,000 monthly volume = low risk for an established restaurant
- $50,000 monthly volume = high risk for a 1-month-old online business
Why Multiple Factors Matter
Risk rarely comes from a single factor. Instead, combinations of factors create risk profiles:
Example Combination:
- New business (< 6 months) = Medium risk
- High-risk MCC (nutraceuticals) = Medium risk
- No processing history = Medium risk
- Poor owner credit score = Medium risk
Individual Assessment: Each factor alone might be acceptable
Combined Assessment: Together they indicate very high risk - likely decline or heavy restrictions
Risk vs. Pricing Relationship
Higher risk doesn't always mean rejection. It often means adjusted terms:
| Risk Level | Typical Outcome | Reserve Requirement | Volume Limits | Funding Schedule | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Auto-approve | 0-5% (0-90 days) | Standard | T+1 or T+2 | Best rates |
| Medium | Conditional approval | 5-10% (90-180 days) | Capped initially | T+3 to T+7 | Mid-tier rates |
| High | Manual review + restrictions | 10-20% (180-365 days) | Strict caps | T+7 to T+14 | Higher rates |
| Very High | Decline or specialized program | 20-50% (365+ days) | Very limited | T+30+ | Premium rates |
Business Risk Indicators
Business-level characteristics that affect overall risk assessment.
Business Type Risk by Industry
Different industries have inherent risk levels based on historical performance data:
| Industry Category | Examples | Typical Chargeback Rate | Risk Level | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail - Card Present | Grocery, hardware stores, clothing boutiques | 0.10-0.30% | Low | Customer present, immediate delivery, tangible goods |
| Restaurants & Food Service | Restaurants, cafes, food trucks | 0.15-0.40% | Low | Card present, immediate consumption, low ticket |
| Professional Services | Law firms, accounting, consulting | 0.20-0.50% | Low-Medium | Established relationship, B2B transactions |
| Retail - E-commerce | General online retail | 0.50-1.00% | Medium | CNP, shipping delays possible, returns common |
| Digital Goods | Software, e-books, online courses | 0.80-2.00% | Medium-High | Intangible, easy chargebacks ("didn't work") |
| Subscription Services | SaaS, membership sites, streaming | 1.00-2.50% | Medium-High | Recurring billing disputes, "forgot to cancel" |
| Travel & Hospitality | Hotels, airlines, tour operators | 0.70-1.50% | Medium-High | Future delivery, cancellations, weather/health events |
| Nutraceuticals | Supplements, vitamins, weight loss | 2.00-5.00% | High | Health claims, negative options, regulatory scrutiny |
| Telemarketing | Outbound sales, free trial offers | 3.00-8.00% | High | Aggressive sales, buyer's remorse, elderly targeting |
| Dating Services | Online dating, matchmaking | 2.00-6.00% | High | Intangible results, emotional purchases, fake profiles |
| Adult Content | Adult entertainment, webcams | 3.00-10.00% | Very High | Fraud, family member disputes, regulatory issues |
| Gambling | Online casinos, sports betting | 2.00-8.00% | Very High | Addictive behavior, losses disputes, regulatory |
Overall US Average: 0.65% across all industries
By Transaction Type:
- Card-Present: 0.10-0.50%
- Card-Not-Present: 0.93% (15x higher fraud rate than CP)
Acceptable Range: <0.5% is considered "safe zone"
Warning Thresholds:
- Visa VAMP (April 2025): >2.2% merchant excessive (drops to >1.5% April 2026)
- Visa VAMP (April 2026): >0.9% early warning (drops from current >1.5%)
- Mastercard ECP: 1.5-2.99% = ECM program, ≥3.0% = HECM program
Card Environment Risk
The method of card presentation dramatically affects fraud and chargeback risk:
| Environment | Description | Fraud Rate (2025) | Chargeback Risk | Authentication | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card Present (CP) | Physical card swiped/inserted/tapped at point of sale | 0.06% | Very Low | EMV chip, PIN | Low |
| Card Not Present (CNP) | Card details entered manually (online, phone, mail) | 0.93% (15x higher) | High | CVV, AVS, 3DS | Medium-High |
| E-commerce | Online shopping with shipping | 1.20% | High | 3DS2, device fingerprinting | High |
| MOTO | Mail Order / Telephone Order | 0.80% | Medium-High | Limited (CVV, address) | Medium-High |
| Recurring/Subscription | Saved card on file, automatic billing | 1.50% | Very High | Initial verification only | High |
| Mobile In-App | Purchases within mobile applications | 0.70% | Medium | App store protections vary | Medium |
Why Card-Not-Present is Higher Risk:
ACH vs. Card Risk Comparison
Many PayFacs process both card and ACH transactions. Each has distinct risk characteristics:
| Risk Dimension | Card Transactions | ACH Transactions | Key Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dispute Window | 60-120 days (max 540 for fraud) | Up to 60 days (unauthorized) | Similar timeframe |
| Dispute Rate | 0.65% average (CNP: 0.93%) | 0.5-2.0% (returns/NSF) | ACH can be higher for some models |
| Fraud Detection | Real-time (milliseconds) | Batch processing (1-3 days) | Card = immediate feedback |
| Return Codes | Decline codes (insufficient funds immediate) | NSF returns 2-3 days later | ACH = delayed failure |
| Liability | Card networks arbitrate | Direct merchant liability (Nacha rules) | ACH = less protection |
| Identity Verification | Card issuer validates | Merchant validates account ownership | ACH = higher fraud if not verified |
| Authorization | Real-time approval/decline | No pre-authorization (debits process blind) | ACH = "push and pray" |
ACH-Specific Risk Factors:
| High-Risk ACH Scenario | Risk Level | Why It's Risky |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription Debits | High | Customer claims unauthorized, high return rates |
| Large First Transaction | High | No account validation, $5k+ initial debit = high NSF risk |
| Consumer Accounts | Medium-High | Higher return rates than business accounts |
| Manual Entry | Medium | Typed account numbers prone to typos |
| No Account Verification | Very High | Proceeding without confirming account ownership |
ACH Underwriting Requirements:
- Nacha Third-Party Sender (TPS) registration required for PayFacs
- ACH-specific reserves (often higher than card: 10-15% baseline)
- Account ownership verification (micro-deposits or instant verification via Plaid)
- Return rate monitoring (<1% acceptable, >2% = Nacha violation risk)
- OFAC screening for all ACH transactions
Most modern PayFacs support both card and ACH, requiring dual risk frameworks. A merchant might be low-risk for cards (established, good history) but high-risk for ACH (new to bank transfers, large ticket debits).
Business Model Risk
How a merchant makes money affects delivery disputes and chargebacks:
| Business Model | Description | Primary Risk | Chargeback Rate | Mitigation Required |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-Time Purchase | Single transaction, no recurring | Low | 0.30-0.80% | Standard |
| Subscription - Physical | Monthly box, magazine delivery | Medium | 1.00-2.00% | Clear cancellation policy, reminder emails |
| Subscription - Digital | SaaS, streaming services | Medium-High | 1.50-3.00% | Easy cancellation, usage monitoring |
| Free Trial → Paid | Trial converts to subscription | High | 2.50-6.00% | Clear disclosure, reminder before charge |
| Negative Option | Auto-ship unless canceled | Very High | 4.00-10.00% | Heavy scrutiny, explicit consent required |
| High Ticket | Luxury goods, jewelry, electronics >$500 | Medium-High | 1.00-3.00% | Enhanced verification, shipping insurance |
| Crowdfunding | Pre-orders, project funding | Very High | 5.00-15.00% | Escrow, milestone delivery, project insurance |
| Marketplace/Platform | Third-party sellers | High | 2.00-5.00% | Seller vetting, holdbacks, buyer protection |
Definition: Automatically shipping and charging customers unless they actively cancel.
Why High Risk:
- FTC scrutiny and enforcement actions
- High complaint rates (Better Business Bureau)
- "Didn't know I was being charged" disputes
- Regulatory violations common
- Many processors prohibit entirely
If Allowed: Requires explicit consent, clear disclosure, easy cancellation
Time in Business
Operating history is one of the strongest predictors of merchant stability:
| Time Operating | Risk Level | Reasoning | Typical Treatment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ years | Low | Proven business model, survived economic cycles, established customer base | Standard terms, lower reserves |
| 2-5 years | Low-Medium | Established but less proven, fewer economic cycles weathered | Standard to slightly elevated reserves |
| 1-2 years | Medium | Still establishing, vulnerable to market changes | Moderate reserves (5-10%), enhanced monitoring |
| 6-12 months | Medium-High | Early stage, higher failure rate, unproven model | Higher reserves (10-15%), volume caps |
| < 6 months | High | Startup, highest failure rate, no track record | Significant reserves (15-20%), strict limits, gradual ramp |
| Pre-launch | Very High | No operations yet, purely speculative | Often decline, or very restricted approval |
Statistical Reality (SBA/BLS 2024 Data):
- ~20% of small businesses fail in first year
- ~50% fail within five years
- ~70% fail within 10 years
- Established businesses (5+ years) have <5% annual failure rate
Industry-Specific Failure Rates (First Year):
| Business Type | First-Year Failure Rate | Underwriting Impact |
|---|---|---|
| E-commerce/Online | ~30% | Higher reserves, stricter caps |
| Brick-and-Mortar Retail | ~15% | Standard underwriting |
| Professional Services | ~10% | Lower risk tier |
| Restaurants | ~25% | Moderate caution |
Why This Matters: An e-commerce startup (<6 months) has ~30% probability of failure in year one, making reserves and volume caps critical protections.
A "new" business may actually have experienced ownership. Consider:
- Owner's industry experience (10 years in restaurant industry)
- Previous business ownership (sold last company)
- Management team credentials
- Capitalization level
These factors can offset lack of business operating history.
Processing History
Prior payment processing experience is the best predictor of future performance:
| Processing History | Chargeback History | Risk Level | Typical Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clean Record | <0.3% chargebacks | Low | Standard approval, best terms |
| Good Record | 0.3-0.5% chargebacks | Low-Medium | Standard approval, normal monitoring |
| Acceptable Record | 0.5-0.65% chargebacks | Medium | Approval with monitoring, possible reserves |
| Warning Level | 0.65-1.0% chargebacks | Medium-High | Enhanced monitoring, reserves required |
| High Level | 1.0-1.5% chargebacks | High | Heavy reserves, volume caps, may decline |
| Excessive | >1.5% chargebacks | Very High | Likely decline (network monitoring threshold) |
| Violations | Network fines, monitoring programs | Very High | Decline or specialized high-risk program |
| MATCH List | Terminated for cause | Prohibited | Auto-decline (5-year blacklist) |
Verification Methods:
- Request 3-6 months of processing statements
- Contact previous processor (with merchant authorization)
- Check MATCH list (Member Alert to Control High-risk merchants)
- Review chargeback ratio trends (improving vs. worsening)
- Verify volume claims match statements
What It Is: Database of merchants terminated by processors for fraud, excessive chargebacks, or violations.
Impact: Merchants remain on MATCH for 5 years, making it extremely difficult to get approved anywhere.
Common Reason Codes:
- Code 01: Account Data Compromise
- Code 04: Excessive Chargebacks (most common)
- Code 05: Excessive Fraud
- Code 10: Violation of Standards
- Code 11: Merchant Collusion
Underwriting Action: MATCH list hit = automatic decline for most processors
Credit History of Principals
Personal and business credit scores indicate financial responsibility:
Personal Credit (FICO Score)
| FICO Range | Risk Level | Typical Impact | Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|
| 750-850 | Low | Best terms, minimal reserves | Strong financial management |
| 700-749 | Low-Medium | Standard terms | Generally acceptable |
| 650-699 | Medium | May require reserves or guarantees | Some concerns, manageable |
| 600-649 | Medium-High | Higher reserves, possible co-signer | Increased scrutiny |
| 550-599 | High | Significant reserves, limited volume | Major concerns |
| < 550 | Very High | Often decline or specialized program | Severe financial distress |
Special Considerations:
- Bankruptcy: Recent (<3 years) = very high risk; Discharged >5 years = less impact
- Judgments/Liens: Unresolved = high risk; Resolved/paid = medium risk
- Payment History: Pattern matters more than single late payment
Business Credit (Dun & Bradstreet, Experian Business)
| Score | Risk Level | Typical Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 80-100 | Low | Strong business credit, best terms |
| 60-79 | Medium | Acceptable, may require some reserves |
| 40-59 | Medium-High | Concerning, enhanced monitoring required |
| < 40 | High | Significant reserves or decline |
Fair Credit Reporting Act requires:
- Merchant consent before pulling credit report
- Adverse action notice if declined based on credit
- Disclosure of credit bureau used
- Merchant's right to dispute inaccuracies
Example Adverse Action:
"Your application was declined based in part on information from Experian (credit score 580). You have the right to obtain a free copy of your credit report from Experian within 60 days by calling 1-888-397-3742."
Transaction Risk Factors
Transaction characteristics that affect fraud and chargeback likelihood.
Average Ticket Size
Transaction amount significantly affects fraud targeting and chargeback exposure:
| Average Ticket | Risk Level | Reasoning | Examples |
|---|---|---|---|
| < $25 | Low | Low fraud appeal, disputes unlikely | Fast food, coffee shops, convenience stores |
| $25-$100 | Low-Medium | Moderate appeal, standard retail | Casual dining, retail clothing, groceries |
| $100-$500 | Medium | Attractive to fraudsters, meaningful chargebacks | Electronics, services, home goods |
| $500-$2,000 | High | High fraud target, significant chargeback exposure | Jewelry, luxury goods, home repairs |
| > $2,000 | Very High | Major fraud target, large losses per incident | High-end jewelry, electronics, B2B equipment |
High-Ticket Underwriting Requirements:
- Enhanced identity verification (3DS2, manual review)
- Shipping address verification
- Signature required delivery
- Insurance requirements
- Lower volume limits initially
- Higher reserves (proportional to exposure)
Ticket Size Variance Red Flags:
- Sudden spike in average ticket (fraud pattern)
- Inconsistent with industry norms
- Mismatched to stated business model
Monthly Volume Projections
Projected processing volume must align with business capacity and history:
| Scenario | Projected Volume | Time in Business | Risk Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $10k/month | 3 years, retail shop | Low - realistic |
| Moderate | $50k/month | 1 year, e-commerce | Medium - monitor growth |
| Aggressive | $200k/month | 6 months, subscription | High - verify capacity |
| Unrealistic | $500k/month | New, no history | Very High - likely fraud or ignorance |
Variance Monitoring:
Major Variance Triggers:
- Merchant processing 3x-10x projected volume = potential fraud, money laundering, or BIN attack
- Merchant processing <25% projected volume = business failure risk, application fraud
Velocity Monitoring and Fraud Detection
Velocity refers to transaction speed and pattern changes that indicate fraud or BIN attacks:
Velocity Metrics Monitored:
| Metric | Normal Range | Warning Threshold | Critical Threshold | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transactions per Hour | Consistent with business type | 3x normal rate | 5x+ normal rate | Auto-suspend for review |
| Daily Volume Spike | ±20% variance | 2x projected daily | 5x+ projected daily | Manual review required |
| Card Testing Pattern | Random amounts | Multiple $1-$5 transactions | 10+ small transactions in <1 hour | Block + fraud alert |
| AVS Mismatch Rate | <5% for e-commerce | 10-15% | >20% | Flag for fraud review |
| Decline Rate Spike | 2-5% baseline | 15-20% | >30% | Potential BIN attack |
Automated Velocity Response:
Real-World Example - BIN Attack Detection:
- Day 1-30: Merchant processes $30k/month (1,000 transactions)
- Day 31: Suddenly processes 500 transactions in 2 hours
- Velocity Alert: 500 transactions = 50% of monthly volume in 2 hours
- Pattern: Multiple cards, sequential numbers, different ZIP codes
- Immediate Action: Auto-suspend, freeze payouts, review for stolen card testing
Fraudsters use compromised merchant accounts to test stolen card numbers rapidly. Without velocity monitoring, a single merchant could process thousands of fraudulent transactions before detection. The processor bears liability for all approved fraudulent transactions.
Delivery Timeframe Risk
Time between payment and product/service delivery is critical:
| Delivery Window | Examples | Chargeback Rate | Risk Level | Mitigation Required |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate (Same Day) | Restaurants, retail stores, gas stations | 0.10-0.40% | Low | Standard procedures |
| 1-7 Days | E-commerce, food delivery, local services | 0.50-1.50% | Medium | Tracking numbers, delivery confirmation |
| 1-4 Weeks | Custom goods, made-to-order, pre-orders | 1.50-3.00% | Medium-High | Clear timelines, progress updates, reserves |
| 1-3 Months | Major custom work, special orders | 2.00-5.00% | High | Milestone payments, escrow, insurance |
| 3+ Months | Travel (cruises, vacations), events, crowdfunding | 5.00-15.00% | Very High | Major reserves (10-20%), delayed funding, guarantees |
Why Delivery Timeframe Matters:
- Merchant Failure Risk: Longer delivery window = more time for merchant to go out of business before fulfilling
- Buyer's Remorse: Customer circumstances change (cancel vacation, don't need product)
- Chargebacks Concentrated: If merchant fails, ALL customers chargeback simultaneously
- Customer Forgetting: Long gap between charge and delivery = "I didn't authorize this"
Real-World Example:
A travel agency collects $800,000 for cruises departing 6-12 months in the future. At month 4, the agency:
- Faces cash flow problems (spent customer funds on operations)
- Cannot secure cruise bookings (supplier issues)
- Declares bankruptcy
Chargeback Impact:
- ALL 400 customers file chargebacks
- Processor must return $800,000 to cardholders
- If reserve was only 5% ($40,000), processor eats $760,000 loss
- This is why travel merchants need 10-20% rolling reserves
Reserve Requirements by Delivery Timeframe:
| Delivery Window | Typical Reserve | Duration | Funding Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate | 0-5% | 0-90 days | T+1 to T+2 |
| 1-7 days | 5-10% | 90-180 days | T+2 to T+3 |
| 1-4 weeks | 10-15% | 180-365 days | T+7 to T+14 |
| 1-3 months | 15-20% | 365+ days | T+14 to T+30 |
| 3+ months | 20-50% | Until delivery + 90 days | T+30+ |
Refund Policy Analysis
Merchant refund policies affect customer disputes and chargebacks:
| Refund Policy | Risk Level | Reasoning | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full refund, 30+ days, no questions asked | Low | Customer-friendly, fewer disputes escalate to chargebacks | Lower chargeback rates |
| Full refund, 14-30 days, reasonable conditions | Low-Medium | Standard retail policy, fair to both parties | Normal chargeback rates |
| Partial refund or store credit only | Medium | Customer dissatisfaction may lead to chargebacks | Higher dispute rates |
| No refunds, all sales final | Medium-High | Customers forced to chargeback for recourse | Significantly higher chargebacks |
| No refunds + high-pressure sales | Very High | Buyer's remorse + no legitimate recourse = chargebacks | Very high chargeback rates |
| Unclear or hidden refund policy | High | Violates card network rules, customer confusion | Disputes + regulatory issues |
Visa and Mastercard Mandate:
- Refund policy must be clearly disclosed before purchase
- Policy must be displayed on website, checkout, receipt
- Cannot be more restrictive than disclosed
- "No refunds" policy requires explicit customer acknowledgment
Violation = Merchant Liability for chargebacks even if policy states "no refunds"
Refund Policy Red Flags:
- Hidden or hard to find policy
- Policy contradicts customer service statements
- Overly restrictive for the product type (digital goods with no refunds)
- Changed after disputes arise
- Inconsistent application
Chargeback History
Historical chargeback performance is the single best predictor of future chargebacks:
| Chargeback Ratio | Industry Benchmark (2025) | Risk Level | Action Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 0.3% | Excellent | Low | Standard monitoring |
| 0.3-0.5% | Good (safe zone) | Low-Medium | Normal monitoring |
| 0.5-0.65% | Average (overall US avg) | Medium | Increased monitoring |
| 0.65-1.0% | Warning level | Medium-High | Enhanced monitoring, corrective action plan |
| 1.0-1.5% | Elevated | High | Significant reserves, volume caps, urgent remediation |
| 1.5-2.2% | Excessive (network threshold) | Very High | Pre-arbitration holds, may need to exit merchant |
| > 2.2% | Visa VAMP Excessive (April 2025) | Critical | Terminate or extraordinary measures |
Visa VAMP (Visa Acquirer Monitoring Program):
| Period | Merchant Excessive | Early Warning | Acquirer Excessive | Safe Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Apr 2025 - Mar 2026) | >2.2% | >1.5% | >0.7% portfolio | <0.5% |
| April 2026 Forward | >1.5% | >0.9% | >0.7% portfolio | <0.5% |
Impact of April 2026 Changes:
- Thresholds tightening by 32-40%
- Merchants currently at 1.5-2.2% will move from "monitoring" to "excessive"
- Start remediation NOW if above 1.0%
Mastercard ECP (Excessive Chargeback Program):
- ECM (Excessive Chargeback Merchant): ≥100 chargebacks/month AND 1.5-2.99% ratio
- HECM (High Excessive Chargeback Merchant): ≥300 chargebacks/month AND ≥3.0% ratio
Consequences:
- Monthly monitoring fees ($5,000-$25,000)
- Required action plans and monthly reporting
- Potential fines up to $100,000+
- Possible termination and MATCH listing
- Acquirer portfolio penalties
Chargeback Calculation:
Chargeback Ratio = (Total Chargebacks in Month) / (Total Transactions in Month) × 100
Important: Card networks use count-based ratios (number of transactions), not dollar-based.
Example:
- 1,000 transactions in March
- 8 chargebacks in March
- Chargeback Ratio = 8 / 1,000 × 100 = 0.8%
Risk Factor Matrix
Comprehensive matrix showing how individual factors map to risk levels:
| Risk Factor | Low Risk | Medium Risk | High Risk | Very High Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time in Business | 5+ years | 2-5 years | 6mo-2yr | <6 months |
| Processing History | <0.3% chargebacks | 0.3-0.65% chargebacks | 0.65-1.5% chargebacks | >1.5% or MATCH list |
| Credit Score (Personal) | 720+ | 660-719 | 600-659 | <600 |
| Industry/MCC | Retail CP, restaurants | E-commerce, professional services | Travel, digital goods, subscriptions | Nutraceuticals, telemarketing, adult |
| Card Environment | Card-present (EMV) | Card-present (mag stripe) | CNP with 3DS | CNP without 3DS |
| Delivery Timeframe | Immediate (same day) | 1-7 days | 1-4 weeks | 30+ days |
| Average Ticket | <$50 | $50-$200 | $200-$1,000 | >$1,000 |
| Monthly Volume | <$50k (established) | $50k-$200k | $200k-$500k | >$500k (new business) |
| Business Model | One-time purchase | Subscription (clear) | Free trial → paid | Negative option |
| Refund Policy | Full refund 30+ days | Refund 14-30 days | Store credit only | No refunds |
| Documentation | Complete, verified | Complete, minor gaps | Incomplete, some verification issues | Falsified or missing |
| Web Presence | Professional, transparent | Basic but functional | Minimal or unclear | No website or suspicious |
| Geographic Location | US-based, established area | US-based, newer area | International (low-risk country) | High-risk country |
| Ownership Structure | Single owner, transparent | Partnership, clear structure | Multiple entities, complex | Opaque, shell companies |
| Cross-Border Processing | Domestic only | International (low-risk countries) | International (medium-risk) | Sanctioned/high-risk countries |
| Currency Risk | USD only | Major currencies (EUR, GBP, CAD) | Emerging market currencies | Crypto/high volatility |
Cross-Border and Multi-Currency Risk
International processing introduces additional risk layers that require enhanced underwriting:
Geographic Risk Factors:
| Merchant/Customer Location | Risk Level | Primary Concerns | Mitigation Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Merchant → US Customer | Low | Standard domestic risk | Standard underwriting |
| US Merchant → International Customer | Medium | Cross-border chargebacks, FX disputes, delivery confirmation | 3DS, tracking, FX disclosure |
| International Merchant → US Customer | High | Jurisdiction issues, regulatory gaps, collection difficulty | Enhanced KYB, local entity verification, higher reserves |
| High-Risk Country Involvement | Very High | OFAC sanctions, fraud networks, compliance violations | Decline or specialized program |
Currency Exchange Risk:
- FX Rate Disputes: "I was charged more than expected due to conversion"
- Multi-Currency Pricing: Customer confusion about final charge amount
- Settlement Currency: If merchant settled in different currency than cardholder, disputes more complex
- Volatility: Emerging market currencies can swing 5-10%+ causing chargeback timing issues
OFAC Sanctions Screening (Required for ALL International):
- Beneficial owners must clear SDN (Specially Designated Nationals) list
- Countries/regions with restrictions: Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk
- Violation = Federal crime (civil penalties up to $250,000+ per violation)
- Ongoing monitoring required (sanctions lists updated frequently)
Cross-Border Underwriting Requirements:
- Local business registration verification in merchant's country
- Tax identification in merchant's jurisdiction
- Sanctions screening (OFAC, EU, UN lists)
- Higher reserves (15-20% baseline for international)
- Delayed funding (T+7 to T+14 minimum)
- Legal jurisdiction agreements for collections
- Currency disclosure requirements at checkout
International merchants are inherently higher risk due to:
- Difficulty verifying business legitimacy remotely
- Limited recourse if merchant defaults (jurisdiction issues)
- Higher fraud rates in certain regions
- Regulatory compliance complexity
- Currency fluctuation exposure
Most PayFacs limit international merchants to <10-15% of portfolio volume.
Combining Risk Factors
Risk assessment is about combinations, not individual factors in isolation.
Additive Risk Model
Risk scores typically use weighted factors that add together:
How Risk Weights Are Determined
Risk scoring weights are derived from historical loss data and predictive analytics:
Weight Determination Methodology:
- Historical Loss Analysis: Analyze 3-5 years of chargeback/fraud losses; correlate to specific factors
- Statistical Significance: Only factors with proven correlation are weighted
- Industry Benchmarks: Compare internal data to card network benchmarks; adjust for risk appetite
Example Weight Derivation - Time in Business:
| Time in Business | Historical Loss Rate | Risk Points | Justification |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ years | 0.05% average loss | 5 points | Baseline (proven track record) |
| 2-5 years | 0.12% average loss | 10 points | 2.4x baseline loss |
| 6mo-2yr | 0.35% average loss | 20 points | 7x baseline loss |
| <6 months | 0.75% average loss | 35 points | 15x baseline loss |
Example Weight Derivation - Industry/MCC:
| Industry | Chargeback Rate | Fraud Rate | Combined Loss | Risk Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restaurant (CP) | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.24% | 5 points |
| E-commerce | 0.65% | 0.93% | 1.58% | 20 points |
| Nutraceuticals | 3.50% | 2.00% | 5.50% | 50 points |
Why Industry Receives Highest Weight:
- Nutraceuticals have 23x higher combined loss than restaurants
- Industry is the strongest single predictor of risk
- This is why MCC classification is critical in underwriting
Combining Weighted Factors - Full Example:
| Factor | Coffee Shop | Points | Nutraceutical Startup | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time in Business | 8 years | 5 | 4 months | 35 |
| Industry/MCC | Restaurant | 5 | Nutraceuticals | 50 |
| Card Environment | CP | 5 | CNP | 20 |
| Credit Score | 750 | 5 | 620 | 20 |
| Processing History | 0.2% CB | 0 | New | 15 |
| Total Score | 20 | 140 |
Decision:
- Coffee Shop (20 points): Auto-approve, best terms
- Nutraceutical Startup (140 points, capped at 100): Decline or specialized high-risk program
Model Calibration Targets:
- True Positive Rate: % of high-score merchants who had losses (should be high)
- False Positive Rate: % of high-score merchants who were fine (should be low)
- False Negative Rate: % of low-score merchants with unexpected losses (target: <1%)
Example Scenarios
Scenario 1: Low-Risk Approval
Merchant Profile:
- Coffee shop, 8 years in business
- MCC 5814 (restaurant)
- Card-present transactions
- Immediate delivery
- Average ticket $12
- $30k/month projected volume
- Owner FICO 750
- Clean processing history (0.2% chargebacks)
Risk Assessment:
- Time in business: Low (5 points)
- Industry: Low (5 points)
- Card environment: Low (5 points)
- Delivery: Low (5 points)
- Credit: Low (5 points)
- Processing history: Low (0 points)
Total Score: 25/100 = Low Risk
Decision: Auto-approve, standard terms, 0% reserve, T+2 funding
Scenario 2: Medium-Risk Conditional Approval
Merchant Profile:
- E-commerce clothing retailer, 18 months in business
- MCC 5651 (family clothing)
- Card-not-present, 3-5 day shipping
- Average ticket $85
- $75k/month projected volume
- Owner FICO 680
- Prior processor showed 0.6% chargebacks
Risk Assessment:
- Time in business: Medium (20 points)
- Industry: Medium (15 points)
- Card environment: Medium (15 points)
- Delivery: Medium (10 points)
- Credit: Medium (10 points)
- Processing history: Medium (10 points)
Total Score: 80/100 = Medium Risk
Decision: Conditional approval
- 8% rolling reserve for 180 days
- $100k/month volume cap initially
- T+5 funding schedule
- Enhanced monitoring (weekly reviews)
- Re-underwrite at 6 months
Scenario 3: High-Risk Manual Review
Merchant Profile:
- Online supplement seller (weight loss), 4 months in business
- MCC 5499 (miscellaneous food stores - nutraceuticals)
- Card-not-present, subscription model
- Average ticket $120/month
- $200k/month projected volume
- Owner FICO 620
- No prior processing history (new to cards)
Risk Assessment:
- Time in business: High (30 points)
- Industry: Very High (35 points - nutraceuticals)
- Card environment: High (20 points - CNP + subscription)
- Delivery: Medium (10 points - ships within week)
- Credit: Medium-High (15 points)
- Processing history: Medium (15 points - new to processing)
Total Score: 125/100 (capped at 100) = Very High Risk
Decision: Manual review required, likely outcomes:
- Option A (Decline): Risk too high for standard program
- Option B (Specialized Program):
- 20% rolling reserve for 365 days
- $50k/month initial volume cap
- T+14 funding (2-week delay)
- Daily monitoring
- Higher pricing tier
- Proof of FDA compliance
- Supplier agreements required
- Personal guarantee from owner
Scenario 4: Combination Creates High Risk
Merchant Profile:
- Travel agency selling cruise packages
- 12 years in business (established!)
- MCC 4722 (travel agency)
- Card-not-present bookings
- Average ticket $3,500
- Cruises depart 6-12 months after booking
- $400k/month projected volume
- Owner FICO 740 (excellent!)
- Prior processor: 0.4% chargebacks (good!)
Individual Factors:
- Time in business: Low (established 12 years)
- Credit score: Low (FICO 740)
- Processing history: Low (0.4% ratio)
BUT Combination Risk:
- High average ticket ($3,500) = High (25 points)
- Future delivery (6-12 months) = Very High (35 points)
- High monthly volume = High (25 points)
- Total exposure = $400k/month × $3,500 avg = massive
Total Score: 85/100 = High Risk
Decision: Approve BUT with heavy protections:
- 20% rolling reserve (held until 90 days post-cruise departure)
- Delayed funding: T+30 (hold funds for 30 days)
- Financial review: Quarterly financial statements required
- Volume cap: $500k/month maximum
- Supplier verification: Confirm cruise line contracts
- Travel insurance: Require or recommend to customers
Even "good" individual factors (established business, good credit, clean history) don't eliminate risk when business model creates structural vulnerability (future delivery, high ticket, concentrated exposure).
Red Flag Combinations
Certain combinations should trigger immediate scrutiny or decline:
Automatic Decline Triggers:
- MATCH list presence + any other application
- Sanctions screening hit (OFAC SDN list)
- Prohibited industry (illegal goods/services)
- Fraudulent documentation detected
- Prior termination by same processor
Immediate Manual Review Triggers:
- New business (<6 months) + high-risk MCC + high volume projection
- Poor credit (<600) + no processing history + CNP business
- Volume spike (3x+ projection) within first 90 days
- Multiple failed businesses under same ownership
- Opaque ownership structure + high-risk industry
- Inconsistent information across application and verification
Enhanced Due Diligence Triggers:
- High-risk country operations + large volume
- Multiple related entities with same ownership
- Sudden business model change
- Cash-intensive business + high CNP volume
- Unusual transaction patterns vs. stated business
Industry Benchmarks and Standards
Understanding where merchants fall relative to industry norms:
Chargeback Rates by Industry (2025 Data)
| Industry Vertical | Median Chargeback Rate | 75th Percentile | 90th Percentile | Network Threshold Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grocery & Supermarkets | 0.12% | 0.20% | 0.35% | Very Low |
| Restaurants (QSR/Casual) | 0.18% | 0.30% | 0.50% | Very Low |
| Retail Apparel (CP) | 0.25% | 0.40% | 0.65% | Low |
| Professional Services | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.80% | Low |
| General E-commerce | 0.65% | 1.00% | 1.50% | Medium |
| Travel & Hospitality | 0.89% | 1.30% | 2.00% | Medium-High |
| Digital Goods/Software | 1.20% | 1.80% | 2.50% | High |
| Subscription Services | 1.50% | 2.20% | 3.50% | High |
| Nutraceuticals | 2.50% | 4.00% | 6.00% | Very High |
| Dating/Adult | 3.50% | 6.00% | 10.00% | Very High |
Source: Card network data, payment processor benchmarks, 2025
Fraud Rates by Transaction Type (2025)
| Transaction Type | Fraud Rate (% of transactions) | Fraud Rate vs. Card-Present |
|---|---|---|
| Card-Present (EMV Chip) | 0.06% | Baseline (1x) |
| Card-Present (Mag Stripe) | 0.15% | 2.5x higher |
| Card-Not-Present (no 3DS) | 0.93% | 15.5x higher |
| Card-Not-Present (with 3DS2) | 0.45% | 7.5x higher |
| Mobile In-App | 0.70% | 11.7x higher |
| Recurring/Subscription (initial) | 1.20% | 20x higher |
| Recurring/Subscription (subsequent) | 0.40% | 6.7x higher |
Key Insight: EMV chip adoption has dramatically reduced CP fraud, pushing fraud to CNP channels.
Reserve Requirements by Risk Tier (Industry Standards)
| Risk Tier | Reserve % | Hold Duration | Funding Delay | Typical Merchants |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 (Low) | 0-5% | 0-90 days | T+1 to T+2 | CP retail, restaurants, established e-commerce |
| Tier 2 (Medium) | 5-10% | 90-180 days | T+3 to T+7 | New e-commerce, services, moderate risk MCC |
| Tier 3 (High) | 10-20% | 180-365 days | T+7 to T+14 | Travel, high-ticket, future delivery, subscriptions |
| Tier 4 (Very High) | 20-50% | 365+ days | T+14 to T+30+ | Nutraceuticals, crowdfunding, high-risk specialized |
Reserve Types:
- Rolling Reserve: % of each transaction held for specified period, then released on rolling basis
- Fixed Reserve: Upfront amount held for duration (e.g., $50,000 held for 1 year)
- Capped Reserve: Rolling reserve until cap reached (e.g., 10% up to $100k maximum)
PayFac Portfolio Risk Aggregation
Payment Facilitators must manage risk across their entire sub-merchant portfolio, not just individual merchants.
Portfolio-Level Considerations
Concentration Risk Management
PayFacs must avoid over-concentration in any single dimension:
| Concentration Type | Risk | Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Industry | If 60% of portfolio is travel, one industry crisis (COVID-19) devastates entire book | Limit any single industry to <30% of portfolio volume |
| Geographic | All merchants in one state = state regulatory risk, natural disaster impact | Diversify across states/regions |
| Volume | Top 10 merchants = 80% of volume; if they leave, portfolio collapses | Balance large and small merchants |
| High-Risk MCC | Too many high-risk merchants = network scrutiny, sponsor bank concern | Cap high-risk at <20% of total volume |
| Ownership | Same owner controls multiple sub-merchant accounts | Aggregate limits across related entities |
Aggregate Reserve Requirements
PayFacs maintain reserves at two levels:
Sub-Merchant Level:
- Individual reserves based on each merchant's risk
- Protects against that specific merchant's chargebacks
Platform Level (PayFac's Master Reserve):
- Separate reserve required by sponsor bank
- Protects against aggregate portfolio risk
- Typically 1-5% of total monthly volume
- Replenished if depleted by losses
Example:
- PayFac processes $10M/month across 500 sub-merchants
- Individual sub-merchant reserves total $800k
- PayFac master reserve requirement: 3% × $10M = $300k
- Total reserves: $1.1M
Network Threshold Monitoring
PayFacs must monitor both:
-
Individual sub-merchant thresholds
- Any sub-merchant exceeding 1.5% = network excessive
- Action required: Remediate or terminate
-
Acquirer (PayFac) aggregate threshold
- Visa VAMP Acquirer Excessive: >0.7% across entire portfolio
- All sub-merchant chargebacks count toward PayFac's aggregate ratio
Calculation:
PayFac Aggregate Ratio = (All Sub-Merchant Chargebacks) / (All Sub-Merchant Transactions)
Example:
- 500 sub-merchants
- 480 have <0.5% chargeback rate (good)
- 20 have 2-3% chargeback rate (bad)
- Aggregate ratio = 0.85% (EXCEEDS 0.7% threshold)
- Result: PayFac enters VAMP program, faces fines, must remediate
A PayFac can have 95% low-risk merchants and still face network penalties if the remaining 5% high-risk merchants generate excessive chargebacks.
This is why PayFac underwriting must be STRICTER than traditional acquirer underwriting - the PayFac bears ALL risk.
Sponsor Bank Risk Requirements
PayFacs operate under sponsor bank partnerships. Understanding why sponsor banks impose strict requirements helps underwriters make better decisions:
Sponsor Bank Liability:
The sponsor bank (e.g., Wells Fargo Bank, Fifth Third Bank, Esquire Bank) is the actual registered acquirer with Visa/Mastercard. The PayFac operates under the bank's BIN (Bank Identification Number).
What This Means:
- Regulatory Liability: Bank faces OCC/FDIC/Fed scrutiny for PayFac's merchants
- Network Liability: Bank's BIN is on every transaction; network fines hit the bank first
- Financial Liability: Bank may be required to cover PayFac losses if PayFac fails
- Reputational Liability: Merchant fraud/violations reflect on bank's brand
Sponsor Bank Risk Requirements:
| Requirement | Purpose | Impact on PayFac Underwriting |
|---|---|---|
| Master Reserve (1-5% of portfolio) | Cover aggregate portfolio losses | PayFac must maintain $100k-$5M+ in reserves |
| Portfolio Chargeback Limits (<0.7%) | Avoid Visa VAMP Acquirer Excessive | PayFac must terminate merchants approaching 1.5% |
| Prohibited Industry Lists | Bank risk appetite | PayFac cannot onboard even if willing to take risk |
| Quarterly Financial Reviews | Monitor PayFac solvency | PayFac must show capital adequacy, loss ratios |
| Audit Rights | Ensure compliance | Bank can review ANY merchant file, demand changes |
| Immediate Termination Rights | Exit bad merchants quickly | PayFac must have rapid offboarding processes |
Why Sponsor Banks Care About Individual Sub-Merchants:
Even though the PayFac manages the direct relationship, sponsor banks review:
- High-volume sub-merchants (>$1M/month typically)
- High-risk industries (travel, nutraceuticals, etc.)
- Merchants with excessive chargebacks
- Any merchant generating network violations
Real-World Consequence:
If a PayFac onboards too many high-risk merchants:
- Sponsor bank receives network notifications (VAMP warnings)
- Bank demands PayFac remediate or exit specific merchants
- If not resolved, bank can terminate the entire PayFac relationship
- PayFac loses ability to process for ALL sub-merchants (catastrophic)
When evaluating a borderline merchant, remember: the sponsor bank relationship is the foundation of the entire PayFac business. One bad merchant isn't worth risking the whole platform.
Common Sponsor Bank Restrictions:
- Adult content: Usually prohibited entirely
- Gambling/cannabis: Only licensed, heavily restricted
- Crypto: Often prohibited or requires specialized approval
- High-risk MCC cap: <20-30% of portfolio volume
- Individual merchant volume caps: $5M-$10M/month maximum
- Geographic restrictions: May exclude certain countries
Self-Assessment Questions
Test your understanding of risk factors in underwriting:
Question 14: Why is a nutraceuticals merchant higher risk than a coffee shop?
Click to reveal answer
Nutraceuticals (Very High Risk):
- Card environment: Card-not-present (online sales) = 15x higher fraud rate
- Delivery timeframe: Future delivery (ships days later) = more disputes
- Business model: Often subscription-based = "forgot to cancel" chargebacks
- Product claims: Health claims ("lose weight fast") = regulatory scrutiny (FDA/FTC)
- Chargeback rate: Industry average 2-5% (vs. <0.5% goal)
- Regulatory risk: FDA warning letters, FTC enforcement actions common
- Customer disputes: "Didn't work," "false advertising," "negative option billing"
Coffee Shop (Low Risk):
- Card environment: Card-present (EMV chip) = 0.06% fraud rate
- Delivery timeframe: Immediate (consumed on-site) = virtually no delivery disputes
- Business model: One-time purchase = no subscription disputes
- Product: Tangible, straightforward goods = no health claims or regulatory issues
- Chargeback rate: Industry average <0.2%
- Regulatory risk: Minimal (health permits only)
- Customer disputes: Rare (customer present, immediate satisfaction/dissatisfaction)
Key Difference: The combination of CNP, future delivery, subscriptions, health claims, and regulatory scrutiny makes nutraceuticals 10-25x riskier than card-present retail with immediate delivery.
Question 15: How does delivery timeframe affect chargeback risk? Give examples
Click to reveal answer
Delivery timeframe directly correlates with chargeback risk:
Immediate Delivery (Same Day):
- Example: Restaurant meal
- Chargeback Rate: 0.1-0.4%
- Why Low Risk: Customer receives product before leaving, sees quality, disputes resolved immediately
- Common Disputes: Virtually none (stolen card fraud only)
Short Delivery (1-7 Days):
- Example: Amazon order
- Chargeback Rate: 0.5-1.5%
- Why Medium Risk: Small window for merchant failure, tracking reduces disputes
- Common Disputes: "Never arrived," "wrong item," "damaged in shipping"
Medium Delivery (1-4 Weeks):
- Example: Custom furniture
- Chargeback Rate: 1.5-3%
- Why Higher Risk: Greater opportunity for merchant failure, buyer's remorse period
- Common Disputes: "Took too long," "not as described," "changed mind"
Future Delivery (3+ Months):
- Example: Cruise booked 8 months in advance
- Chargeback Rate: 5-15% (if merchant fails)
- Why Highest Risk:
- Merchant may go out of business before delivery
- Customer circumstances change (illness, job loss, pandemic)
- Buyer's remorse over long period
- If merchant fails, ALL customers chargeback simultaneously
- Common Disputes: "Merchant didn't deliver," "canceled but not refunded," "business closed"
Risk Mitigation by Timeframe:
- Immediate: No special mitigation needed
- 1-7 days: Tracking numbers, delivery confirmation
- 1-4 weeks: Progress updates, 5-10% reserve
- 3+ months: 15-20% reserve, delayed funding (T+30), delivery guarantees
Question 16: What additional risk factors should be considered for a merchant with no processing history?
Click to reveal answer
New-to-processing merchants lack the primary risk indicator (chargeback history), requiring evaluation of alternative factors:
Mandatory Additional Checks:
-
Credit History (Always Required)
- Personal credit for sole proprietors (FICO score)
- Business credit if available (D&B, Experian Business)
- Cannot waive for new merchants (no processing history to offset)
-
Business Capitalization
- Bank statements showing adequate working capital
- Ability to fulfill orders without using customer funds
- 3-6 months operating expenses in reserve
-
Time in Business (Even if Not Processing)
- How long has business operated (with other payment methods)?
- Cash-only for years? Check business licenses, tax returns
- Startup (<6 months) = highest risk tier
-
Owner Experience
- Industry experience (10 years in restaurant industry)
- Prior business ownership (successful exit from previous company)
- Professional background and education
- Payment processing experience in previous roles
-
Online Reputation
- Website quality, professionalism, SSL certificate
- Social media presence and customer engagement
- Google reviews, Yelp ratings
- Better Business Bureau rating
- No negative regulatory actions or complaints
-
Business Legitimacy Verification
- Physical location vs. virtual/home-based
- Operating licenses and permits
- Supplier relationships and contracts
- Inventory or service delivery capability
Underwriting Adjustments:
- Higher Reserves: 10-15% minimum (vs. 0-5% for established)
- Volume Caps: Conservative initial limits
- Enhanced Monitoring: Daily/weekly reviews for first 90 days
- Gradual Ramp: Increase limits over time as history builds
- Delayed Funding: T+5 to T+7 vs. T+2
Gradual Ramp Example:
- Month 1: $25k cap, 15% reserve, daily monitoring
- Month 2-3: $50k cap if clean (no chargebacks, no fraud)
- Month 4-6: $100k cap, reduce reserve to 10%
- Month 7+: Standard limits and monitoring if performance good
Red Flags for New Merchants:
- Projecting unrealistic volume for business size/age
- Poor credit with no offsetting factors
- No web presence or unprofessional website
- Vague business description or inconsistent information
- Reluctance to provide documentation
- High-risk MCC + new business + no experience
Question 17: What is the purpose of a reserve, and when should one be required?
Click to reveal answer
Purpose of Reserves:
A reserve is funds held by the processor/acquirer to cover potential future chargebacks, refunds, and merchant obligations. It protects the processor from losses if:
- Merchant receives chargebacks after account closure
- Merchant goes out of business with unfulfilled orders
- Merchant lacks funds to cover disputed transactions
- Fraud or compliance issues create liability
How Reserves Work:
Rolling Reserve (Most Common):
- X% of each transaction is held for Y days, then released
- Example: 10% reserve for 180 days
- Today's $10,000 in sales → $1,000 held
- 180 days from now → $1,000 released (if no chargebacks)
- Creates a rolling balance that builds over time
Fixed Reserve:
- Upfront amount held for duration
- Example: $50,000 held for 12 months
- Typically for very high-risk merchants
Capped Reserve:
- Rolling reserve until maximum reached
- Example: 10% rolling up to $100,000 cap
- Once cap reached, new funds replace released funds
When Reserves Are Required:
| Scenario | Reserve Recommendation | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Low-risk established business | 0-5% for 90 days | Minimal risk, good history |
| Medium-risk or new business | 5-10% for 180 days | Moderate risk, building history |
| High-risk industry or high-ticket | 10-20% for 365 days | Elevated chargeback risk |
| Future delivery business | 15-20% until delivery + 90 days | Fulfillment risk |
| Prior chargeback issues | 15-25% for 365+ days | Proven elevated risk |
| Very high risk or specialty | 20-50% for 365+ days | Extreme risk mitigation |
Specific Triggers for Reserves:
- New to processing (<1 year history)
- High-risk MCC (travel, nutraceuticals, telemarketing)
- Future delivery (30+ days after payment)
- High average ticket (>$500)
- Poor credit score (<650)
- Prior processing issues (0.65%+ chargebacks)
- No refund policy or restrictive policy
- High projected volume vs. business size
- Opaque ownership or complex structure
- Card-not-present with subscription model
Reserve Calculation Example (Simple):
Merchant: Travel agency, 20% rolling reserve for 365 days
- Day 1: Process $100,000 → Hold $20,000 (released day 366)
- Day 2: Process $100,000 → Hold $20,000 (released day 367)
- ...
- Day 365: Process $100,000 → Hold $20,000 (released day 730)
- Day 366: Process $100,000 → Hold $20,000, release day 1's $20,000
After ramp-up period, reserve balance stabilizes at ~$7.3M (365 days × $20k/day average)
Complex Reserve Scenario (Delivery-Based Release):
Merchant: Cruise travel agency Terms: 20% rolling reserve, held until 90 days after cruise departure
| Transaction Date | Cruise Departs | Charge | Funded (80%) | Reserve (20%) | Release Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 1 | August 1 | $4,000 | $3,200 | $800 | November 1 |
| January 30 | March 15 | $2,500 | $2,000 | $500 | June 15 |
| March 1 | December 1 | $6,000 | $4,800 | $1,200 | March 1 (next year) |
Reserve Balance Over Time:
| Month | New Sales | New Reserve | Released | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | $100,000 | $20,000 | $0 | $20,000 |
| March | $100,000 | $20,000 | $0 | $60,000 |
| June | $100,000 | $20,000 | $500 (March cruise) | $99,500 |
| November | $100,000 | $20,000 | $800 (August cruise) | $158,700 |
| December | $100,000 | $20,000 | $0 | $178,700 |
Steady-State Reserve: ~$2.5-3M (20% × avg monthly volume × avg booking-to-departure window + 90 days)
Account Termination Scenario:
If merchant closes account:
- Stop accepting new bookings (no new sales)
- Continue holding ALL reserves until cruises depart + 90 days
- If last cruise departs 12 months after closure → release 15 months after closure
- Only then return remaining reserve (minus any chargebacks)
Why This Matters: In 2020, COVID-19 caused ALL travel merchants to face simultaneous chargebacks. Processors with only 5% reserves lost millions; those with 15-20% reserves weathered the storm.
Reserve Reduction: Reserves can be reduced or removed if merchant demonstrates:
- Consistently low chargeback rate (<0.3%)
- 6-12 months of clean history
- No fraud or compliance issues
- Business stability and growth
- Improved credit or financial position
Important: Reserves are merchant's funds (not processor's) - they must be returned when contract ends and all obligations satisfied.
Related Topics
- Underwriting Fundamentals - Core underwriting principles and processes
- MCC Codes - Industry classification and risk tiers
- Risk Scoring Models - Quantifying and automating risk assessment
- KYC Requirements - Identity and business verification
- Beneficial Ownership - UBO identification and screening
- Ongoing Monitoring - Post-approval surveillance
- Portfolio Risk Management - PayFac aggregate risk management
References
Card Network Resources:
- Visa: "Visa Acquirer Monitoring Program (VAMP)" - Updated thresholds effective April 2025
- Visa: "VAMP 2026 Threshold Changes" - Early warning dropping to 0.9% (January 2026)
- Mastercard: "Excessive Chargeback Program (ECP)" - ECM and HECM standards
- Mastercard: "MATCH List User Guide" - Terminated merchant file criteria
- Visa/Mastercard: "MCC Directory" - Merchant category classification
Industry Benchmarking:
- Chargebacks911: "State of Chargebacks 2025" - Industry vertical analysis
- Nilson Report: "Card Fraud Losses 2025" - CP vs. CNP fraud rates
- Verifi/Visa: "2025 Chargeback Benchmark Report" - Industry comparisons
- LexisNexis: "True Cost of Fraud Study 2025" - CNP fraud trends
Regulatory Guidance:
- Federal Trade Commission (FTC): Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) compliance
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB): Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA)
- CFPB: "Adverse Action Notice Requirements" (2025)
- Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN): Beneficial ownership rules
Payment Industry:
- Electronic Transactions Association (ETA): "Merchant Underwriting Best Practices"
- Strawhecker Group: "PayFac Reserve Requirements Study" (2025)
- Payment Facilitator Standards Council: "Portfolio Risk Management Guidelines"
Risk Management:
- Nacha: "ACH Risk Management Guidelines" (cross-reference to payment risk)
- PCI Security Standards Council: "Payment Risk and Data Security"
Next Steps:
- Review Risk Scoring Models to learn how these factors are quantified
- Study MCC Codes for detailed industry classification
- Complete the Underwriting Quiz to test your knowledge